The headlines are that Senator Ted Cruz won, Donald Trump came in second and Senator Marco Rubio third but let's look at why and what else happened that is significant.
First, the why. To begin with, Trump did not have quite the organization that Cruz did. Winning a caucus process is not the same as winning an election. Trump's personality got a lot of voters out but there are nuances to getting enough and winning in the caucus. Also, I do believe some of the last minute dirty tricks by the Cruz campaign had an effect. I think the letter from Cruz kept a few people home who were probably Trump supporters and passing on the incorrect information about Dr. Ben Carson resulted in Cruz picking up some of Carson's supporters.
Some things that need to be recognized. \Cruz's margin was not that big. He was sagging in the polls. Not quite enough to lose but close. Where people felt Trump skipping the Iowa debate was a mistake, I think it cost Cruz and helped Rubio more than it hurt Trump.
Ted Cruz was pounded hard by the other candidates during the debates for his holier than thou posture and past flip flopping. His numbers dropped as a result. The dirty tricks by Sen. Cruz's campaign are going to hurt him even more. Here is a guy whose campaign is promoting the idea that you can "TrusTed" and his campaign sends out letters falsely appearing to be from a government agency telling people not to go to the caucuses. Plus his campaign promotes false information suggesting Ben Carson is pulling out of the race. When caught they first deny, then they admit what they did but try to cloud the issue by pointing fingers at other candidates, and coin the phrase Trumper Tantrum to criticize Donald Trump's reaction (a good one I admit :-). The dirty tricks are big news and there is not a lot of time between now and New Hampshire to allow voters to forget what happened.
I don't expect Cruz to do well in New Hampshire. The evangelical and social conservative vote there is not large. That's the audience to whom Cruz plays well. Rubio's message is appealing to non-religious conservatives. Trump's message is a populist one that plays well to the blue collar and to the anti-establishment types.
Plus there are other candidates who put less time in Iowa to focus on New Hampshire, specifically the three Governors - Bush Christie, and Kasich, Expect all of them to do better in New Hampshire than they did in Iowa. The problem they face is they are all drawing from the same audience. We could see one of them break out and watch the chances of the other two fade badly. Or we could see all three of them score equal percentages - nice but not good enough to move into the top three. Then we'll have to see which one blinks first and decides to withdraw from the race or whether they stay in and continue to dilute the vote from the moderates.
The final result of Iowa that must be mentioned is the decision of Senators Paul and Santorum, and Gov. Huckabee to withdraw from the race. It is interesting that the conservatives pull out while the moderates stay in the race. But the moderates - Bush, Christie and Kasich were pointing toward New Hampshire.
Personally, I am hoping to see Carly Fiorina pick up some votes in New Hampshire. Reports are that she is polling well there.
Prediction: I think New Hampshire ends up Trump first, Rubio second - with Marco Rubio picking up votes from conservatives who might have supported Paul, Santorum, or Huckabee. I think the charges of dirty tricks push Ted Cruz down in New Hampshire. I believe he falls past third into fourth or possibly fifth. I think we'll see Governors Christie and Kasich do well in New Hampshire and I think Jeb Bush will be the one who runs third in those three. Expect Carly Fiorina to end up sixth - ahead of Bush and Carson, the latter is focused more on South Carolina.
If one or two of the Governor's finish distantly behind the other two, I think that person will pull out of the race. If Fiorina finishes sixth, I think she stays in. The longer she stays the more chances she has to be on the big stage during a debate. Carly Fiorina performs well in the debates so hanging in is important for her.
This election is going to be competitive for quite a while.
First, the why. To begin with, Trump did not have quite the organization that Cruz did. Winning a caucus process is not the same as winning an election. Trump's personality got a lot of voters out but there are nuances to getting enough and winning in the caucus. Also, I do believe some of the last minute dirty tricks by the Cruz campaign had an effect. I think the letter from Cruz kept a few people home who were probably Trump supporters and passing on the incorrect information about Dr. Ben Carson resulted in Cruz picking up some of Carson's supporters.
Some things that need to be recognized. \Cruz's margin was not that big. He was sagging in the polls. Not quite enough to lose but close. Where people felt Trump skipping the Iowa debate was a mistake, I think it cost Cruz and helped Rubio more than it hurt Trump.
Ted Cruz was pounded hard by the other candidates during the debates for his holier than thou posture and past flip flopping. His numbers dropped as a result. The dirty tricks by Sen. Cruz's campaign are going to hurt him even more. Here is a guy whose campaign is promoting the idea that you can "TrusTed" and his campaign sends out letters falsely appearing to be from a government agency telling people not to go to the caucuses. Plus his campaign promotes false information suggesting Ben Carson is pulling out of the race. When caught they first deny, then they admit what they did but try to cloud the issue by pointing fingers at other candidates, and coin the phrase Trumper Tantrum to criticize Donald Trump's reaction (a good one I admit :-). The dirty tricks are big news and there is not a lot of time between now and New Hampshire to allow voters to forget what happened.
I don't expect Cruz to do well in New Hampshire. The evangelical and social conservative vote there is not large. That's the audience to whom Cruz plays well. Rubio's message is appealing to non-religious conservatives. Trump's message is a populist one that plays well to the blue collar and to the anti-establishment types.
Plus there are other candidates who put less time in Iowa to focus on New Hampshire, specifically the three Governors - Bush Christie, and Kasich, Expect all of them to do better in New Hampshire than they did in Iowa. The problem they face is they are all drawing from the same audience. We could see one of them break out and watch the chances of the other two fade badly. Or we could see all three of them score equal percentages - nice but not good enough to move into the top three. Then we'll have to see which one blinks first and decides to withdraw from the race or whether they stay in and continue to dilute the vote from the moderates.
The final result of Iowa that must be mentioned is the decision of Senators Paul and Santorum, and Gov. Huckabee to withdraw from the race. It is interesting that the conservatives pull out while the moderates stay in the race. But the moderates - Bush, Christie and Kasich were pointing toward New Hampshire.
Personally, I am hoping to see Carly Fiorina pick up some votes in New Hampshire. Reports are that she is polling well there.
Prediction: I think New Hampshire ends up Trump first, Rubio second - with Marco Rubio picking up votes from conservatives who might have supported Paul, Santorum, or Huckabee. I think the charges of dirty tricks push Ted Cruz down in New Hampshire. I believe he falls past third into fourth or possibly fifth. I think we'll see Governors Christie and Kasich do well in New Hampshire and I think Jeb Bush will be the one who runs third in those three. Expect Carly Fiorina to end up sixth - ahead of Bush and Carson, the latter is focused more on South Carolina.
If one or two of the Governor's finish distantly behind the other two, I think that person will pull out of the race. If Fiorina finishes sixth, I think she stays in. The longer she stays the more chances she has to be on the big stage during a debate. Carly Fiorina performs well in the debates so hanging in is important for her.
This election is going to be competitive for quite a while.
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