Is there anyone who doesn't think the Republicans will retake control of both the U.S. House and Senate this year? Probably not - and that's the problem.
All the polls we see are generic. They are asking questions about how people feel about the parties. The pollsters are asking would a generic Republican defeat a generic Democrat. Other polls are gauging people's feelings toward President Biden.
Every indication is the Republicans will win big in both Houses of Congress. What could go wrong?
Elections are not generic. Incumbents are not easy to unseat. Furthermore, elections involve Candidate A running against Candidate B in specific districts on specific issues. Candidates and parties also need money to run campaigns. Republicans can be facing an uphill fight on some or all of these points.
Take incumbency - in Georgia a recent poll showed Herschel Walker running only a couple of points ahead of Democrat incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock. These poll results are Herschel Walker being a football hero in Georgia, having won the Heisman Trophy while a running back for the University of Georgia, and Georgia generally being a Republican state. Being the incumbent is providing Senator Warnock with advantages. The good news for Republicans on this point is that almost 30 Democrat incumbent House members have announced they are retiring from the House.
To retake the House and the Senate, Republicans need good candidates. Herschel Walker is a really good candidate. But candidates like him don't fall off trees. Sometimes it's not possible to recruit good candidates in districts that have historically been Democrat. Sometimes, the Republican primary voters don't choose the strongest candidate. An historical example can be seen in 2010 when Republicans retook the House of Representatives but not the Senate because some of their Senate candidates were not that good. Whatever the case, a poor candidate has an uphill battle regardless of the generic polls, especially if they are running in a challenging district.
This is a redistricting year and Democrats in states like New York, Illinois, California and others are gerrymandering districts to create Congressional districts. Republicans are doing the same in many States they control but Republican controlled States typically don't have as many House districts as States like the ones I mentioned.
Nevertheless, a good candidate in a district they can win still needs to connect with the voters on the issues. In 1994, when the Republicans retook the House of Representatives for the first time in decades they ran on the Contract with America. A series of reforms they promised to implement. It resonated with voters across America.
Finally there is the issue of money. Republican candidates start out with the media strongly against them. Without sufficient funds, a Republican candidate cannot communicate with voters and overcome the combined opposition of their Democrat opponent and the Democrat media. In this regard, Republicans are at a disadvantage. First, Nancy Pelosi has announced she is running for re-election and she is an incredibly strong fundraiser. Couple that with the recent NY Times story describing the almost $60 billion dollar advantage Democrats had in the 2020 election in dark money contributions.
That's why my message to Republicans is "don't get cocky." You can still blow this opportunity. We need the Republicans to take both the House and the Senate if we want the best opportunities to recover from President Biden's first two years in office.
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