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What just happened? Messages from the 2021 Election

Tuesday's election produced dramatic results.  As political experts around the country try to explain what just happened, here's my point of view.  The lessons to be learned by Democrats are different than the lessons that should be taken away by Republicans.  The stage is set for political upheaval at the Federal level in 2022 but how big that will be will be influenced by which party derives the right messages from the election that just occurred.  But to start, if you want a real understanding of what just happened, evaluating the Governor's race in Virginia is important but that is only the tip of the iceberg - you have to look deeper into the races at every level and across the country. 

If Democrats focus solely on the Virginia Gubernatorial election and buy into the media claims that Glenn Youngkin's win is indicative of white racism, influence of President Trump, or inability to get President Biden's agenda passed*, they'll be crushed in the upcoming elections.  I think the lessons they need to learn are:
  • Stop focusing on Donald Trump - Terry McAuliffe did everything he could to tie his opponent to Donald Trump and it didn't work.
  • You can't ignore what the voters are saying - CNN's Van Jones said it best, saying Democrats are coming across as "annoying and offensive and seem out of touch.**"  Terry McAuliffe is the poster child for this lesson too.  As people around Virginia were up in arms about education issues, McAuliffe didn't just ignore the complaints of parents, he went so far as to say parents have no business trying to influence what is taught in schools and then doubled down on this by campaigning with Randi Weingarten, the outspoken leader of a national teacher's union.  But I'd argue the greater example of this is the defeat of NJ Senate President, Senator Stephen Sweeney by Edward Durr, a truck driver who spent $153 on his campaign.  If Senator Sweeney was in touch with his voters that never could have happened.
  • CRT is a real issue - this was a massive issue not just in Virginia but around the Country.  For example, opponents of CRT won school board races across Minnesota.***  Democrats and the Democrat media spent all year claiming CRT is not a real thing.
  • Voters want good government - in Erie PA a Republican with a pro-business, no new taxes background was elected County Executive.  The first time a Republican won this race in almost 20 years.  See also the defeat of Senate President Sweeney in NJ, Edward Durr criticized Sweeney for presiding over growing government, taxes and cost of living.  
  • Crime is a very real concern for voters, particularly suburban voters.  Democrats need to reverse course and come out against crime and criminals - In Long Island, NY Republican candidates for District Attorney were elected on anti-crime platforms.  The same happened in Seattle Washington, where anarchists took over a section of the city last summer.  In Minnesota, where police shooting of a black man led to the defund the police movement got started, voters in the city of Minneapolis rejected a ballot measure to eliminate the police department.
  • The Biden factor - the media isn't people who voted against Donald Trump in 2020 chose Joe Biden because he appeared to be a moderate and promised to unite the country.  Nothing done by President Biden so far is moderate or uniting and his plummeting poll numbers demonstrate the buyer's remorse.  Because of what Biden has done and is proposing with the massive spending bills, Republicans returned to their party and Independents were more open to voting for Republican candidates.
  • Voters won't be bullied or intimidated - CNN's Van Jones was right in saying Democrats are coming across as annoying and offensive and he wasn't just talking about Democrat candidates but also the Democrat media like CNN, MSNBC, the NY Times, the Washington Post, LA Times and others.  Voters are not responding to Democrats saying that if you disagree with us you're a racist.
For Republicans, the most important lesson is simple.  To paraphrase a saying "It's the issues, stupid."  Understand the concerns of your voters and address those.  It worked at the local level.  Example: Edward Durr, a truck driver, defeated the NJ Senate President, a 20 year incumbent spending $153 and using an ad filmed on a cell phone.  Mr. Durr identified specific issues, had a simple message, and went door to door to communicate with the voters in that district.  It works at the macro level - Glenn Youngkin's campaign in Virginia is a good example of this.

The elephant in the room (pun intended since that is the symbol of the Republican Party) is President Trump.  There are some places where Donald Trump is so popular he can be a tremendous asset.  Montana is an example of a State where Trump's support can be a help but you still have to be a good candidate to realize the benefit of that.  In other places, candidates need to keep him at arms length - not reject him but simply don't embrace him - as Glenn Youngkin did in Virginia.

History says the party not in the White House, i.e. the Republicans, should do well in the 2022 elections.  How well they do will be determined in part by which party learns the lessons of this year's elections.  

*  See the following: 
https://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/nicholas-fondacaro/2021/11/03/abc-nbc-hint-youngkin-catered-racists-skip-win-black
https://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/kristine-marsh/2021/11/03/angry-over-gop-win-virginia-view-blames-white-women-afraid
https://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/curtis-houck/2021/11/03/you-mean-there-were-more-behold-worst-overnight-msnbc-hissy-fits

** https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2021/11/03/van-jones-dems-come-across-as-annoying-and-offensive-and-seem-out-of-touch/

*** https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/11/03/school-board-candidates-opposing-critical-race-theory-win-minnesota/


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